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Friday 26 July 2019

Repositioning the Nigerian Economy for Greatness, By Nasir El-Rufai

…though Nigeria is facing very challenging times, the difficulties we all confront daily – from the federal, states and local government councils, as well as small and big businesses and individuals – represent an opportunity to refocus, re-strategize and reposition our social structure, political system and the economy for greatness.

State of the Economy 

That we live in challenging times is an understatement. In the year 2015, the global political economy showed both stresses and promises for our nation. In Eurozone and the USA, economic growth slowed and imports of our crude oil reduced drastically, no thanks to innovations in fracking technology. China’s decades of double-digit economic growth fell to single digit with associated drop in imports of oil and other natural resources from Africa. India has emerged today as the largest importer of Nigerian crude oil, even though though it’s economy has slowed down a bit as well. During the same period, our country witnessed three historic events. 

One was the years of wasted opportunity of deploying over $20 billion of excess crude savings accumulated by the Obasanjo administration in 2007 (with another $40 billion plus) meant for investment in key infrastructure like electricity, railways, deep seaports and gas pipelines required to diversify our economy and polity from oil addiction. Second was the unequivocal and resounding defeat of a sitting president and his party, and the election of a president respected within Nigeria and abroad for his honesty, integrity, forthrightness and discipline. The fact that the 2015 elections and their outcomes were largely peaceful said a lot about what we are capable of as a country when collectively determined to do the right thing. The other was the plague of an economic crisis, occasioned by the global economic slowdown and the consequent collapse of oil prices. 

This situation was made worse by the previous administration’s inability to build healthy reserves when the oil price was much higher; maintain fiscal discipline or even govern with any notion of the paramount importance of maintaining the Nigerian state and its prerogatives. You will all recall that the excess crude savings and reserves accumulated by 2007 were during a period when oil prices were in the sub-$80s, yet even when they peaked at $140 per barrel, nothing was saved and every penny of the savings inherited were spent or diverted with little or nothing to show for it – this translated into blowing over $200 billion in the Yar’Adua-Jonathan years with no tangible outcomes. Corruption levels and impunity escalated during the period as well, and this time it even involved some women – another new and unprecedented disappointment as it is generally assumed that women are reliable, more honest and hard working than men! This is just a short background to a situation we need to confront and resolve as a country. It will take years for the extent of damage done to our economy to be unraveled and even longer to fix.
The federal and state governments, along with businesses, whether represented here or not, must focus and re-energise our domestic production capabilities, thereby creating jobs, manifesting progress and hope that then promotes peaceful existence.

The opportunities we lost as a country to build the critical infrastructure that would have diversified our economy and driven real and lasting economic development; the chances we had of laying the foundation for an inclusive and fair society; the prospects we lost of building a prosperous and one of the top-ten economies in the world by 2020 – all these were frittered away by leadership incompetence, driven by greed and a total lack of appreciation of the purpose of governance and public service. But we cannot continue to remain fixated on who did what or who didn’t. The task of rebuilding our polity and economy is a collective responsibility of all of us, particularly those elected to chart a new path. Without any doubt, the mood, pace and policy direction set by political leadership matters more than any single issue and that we must do clearly and urgently. 
Let us leave the appropriate anti-corruption agencies of government, the media and the Courts to be busy dealing with the recent past – and they will clearly remain busy for a while – trying to get to the roots of the decade long institutionalisation of graft. The federal and state governments, along with businesses, whether represented here or not, must focus and re-energise our domestic production capabilities, thereby creating jobs, manifesting progress and hope that then promotes peaceful existence.
Need for Strategic Repositioning





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